The Closing Line- DRF's Derby Watch 4-12-12

#	Horse / Sire	Watchmaker Odds	Best Beyer	Owner, Trainer, and Jockey	Last Race, Result, and Beyer	Next Likely Race, Track, and Date	Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
1	Union Rags by Dixie Union	9-2	95	Chadds Ford Stable M. Matz/J. Leparoux	Florida Derby, 3/31 3rd by 1 1/4, 93	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	Jay Privman: Fla.Derby trip, and implications, will be debated up to Derby Day. Had no chance. Mike Watchmaker: Didn't get a great ride, but did not run great, either; seems vulnerable now.
2	Creative Cause by Giant's Causeway	5-1	102	Heinz Steinmann M. Harrington/J. Rosario	Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 2nd by a nose, 94	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Ran another strong race and, though he just missed, remains one of the elite contenders. MW: Has strong foundation to go with his solid performance; would like to see blinkers back on.
3	Gemologist by Tiznow	6-1	98	WinStar Farm T. Pletcher/J. Castellano	Wood Memorial, 4/7 1st by a neck, 98	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Reminded me of his sire, the way he idled once in front, and then re-broke when challenged. MW: Did seem to almost handily handle Alpha. Have the feeling he will be a steam horse at CD.
4	Hansen by Tapit	6-1	96	K. Hansen & Skychai Racing M. Maker/R. Dominguez	Gotham, 3/3 1st by 3, 95	Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m Keeneland, 4/14	JP: Showed ability to sit and finish; adds a new dimension, could serve him well down the line. MW: Gotham effort was an improvement on a number of different levels; he's back in the game.
5	I'll Have Another by Flower Alley	10-1	96	J. Paul Reddam D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez	Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 1st by a nose, 94	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: With exception of sloppy track debacle at Sar, he has fired every time. Game in SA Derby. MW: He was. But it was a hard race off a layoff and he's light on foundation; might bounce at CD.
6	Alpha by Bernardini	12-1	98	Godolphin Racing K. McLaughlin/R. Dominguez	Wood Memorial, 4/7 2nd by a neck, 98	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Clobbered on first turn, made nice run to get back in race, but couldn't go by Gemologist. MW: Don't forget, he was off two months prior to the Wood, an effort better than any of his wins.
7	Take Charge Indy by A.P. Indy	15-1	96	Chuck & Maribeth Sandford P. Byrne/C. Borel	Florida Derby, 3/31 1st by 1, 95	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Had bad vibes on him going into the Fla. Derby, but give credit to Byrne for being spot on. MW: Agreed. Now the issue is, he won't coast on an uncontested lead at CD like he did at GP.
8	El Padrino by Pulpit	20-1	100	Let's Go Stable T. Pletcher/undecided	Florida Derby, 3/31 4th by 3, 90	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Although he was wide, didn't think he ever leveled off in the Fla. Derby. Disappointing. MW: Probably can do a little better, but he was slightly overrated going into the Florida Derby.
9	Daddy Long Legs by Scat Daddy	25-1	60	Mrs. J. Magnier & M. Tabor A. O'Brien/C. O'Donoghue	UAE Derby, 3/31 1st by 1 1/4, 117 (RPR)	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: UAE Derby winner another example of what a key race BC Juvenile has turned out to be. MW: Ostensibly, the BC Juvenile attracts the generation's best. It's supposed to be a key race.
10	Daddy Nose Best by Scat Daddy	25-1	100	Cathy & Bob Zollars S. Asmussen/undecided	Sunland Derby, 3/25 1st by 3/4, 100	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Will need a new rider for the Derby since Sunland Derby jock Leparoux also has Union Rags. MW: Got a nice set up in NM, but was again a game winner; better than anyone first thought.
11	Went the Day Well by Proud Citizen	25-1	92	Team Valor Int'l & Ford H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez	Spiral, 3/24 1st by 3 1/2, 92	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Victory in Spiral makes him as accomplished, to this point, as Animal Kingdom last year. MW: It remains to be seen if he can make the massive progress at Churchill that 'Kingdom' did.
12	Dullahan by Even the Score	30-1	86t	Donegal Racing D. Romans/K. Desormeaux	Palm Beach, 3/11 2nd by 1, 86	Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m Keeneland, 4/14	JP: Had nice comeback in Florida, and has previous form at Kee. Should give Hansen a battle. MW: To do that, he will need a helpful pace set up. He's a deep closer who is dependent on that.
13	Mark Valeski by Proud Citizen	30-1	98	Brereton C. Jones L. Jones/R. Napravnik	Louisiana Derby, 4/1 2nd by 1/2, 89	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Lost shoe in La. Derby, which didn't help, but FG form has not held up (e.g., El Padrino). MW: He's a nice colt, and game as can be. I just don't think he's a top tier Derby prospect.
14	Secret Circle by Eddington	30-1	102	Watson, Pegram, & Weitman B. Baffert/R. Bejarano	Rebel, 3/17 1st by 3/4, 92	Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m Oaklawn, 4/14	JP: Continues to expand range of what he can handle. He is one tough cookie when challenged. MW: A winner, but I sensed he was at the end of his distance rope in the 8.5-furlong Rebel.
15	Wrote by High Chaparral	30-1	86t	Mrs. J. Magnier & M. Tabor A. O'Brien/R. Moore	UAE Derby, 3/31 3rd by 2, 113 (RPR)	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Form on dirt is questionable, but big money gleaned on turf, synthetic, puts him in the field. MW: And that's a problem with the graded earnings rule. He also doesn't have dirt breeding.
16	Done Talking by Broken Vow	50-1	85	Skeedattle Stable H. A. Smith/S. Russell	Illinois Derby 1st by 3/4, 85	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Is the Illinois Derby over yet? FG's 18-race card took less time than that stretch run. MW: His winning Beyer isn't close to being competitive. He'd be a Mine That Bird-type upsetter.
17	Liaison by Indian Charlie	50-1	92	Arnold Zetcher B. Baffert/M. Garcia	Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 6th by 9 1/4, 78	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Has enough cash to run, but recent form is poor. Hasn't run well since the CashCall Futurity. MW: Even if he really did hate the track at Santa Anita, it's also doubtful he's good enough.
18	Prospective by Malibu Moon	50-1	90	John C. Oxley M. Casse/L. Contreras	Tampa Bay Derby, 3/10 1st by 3/4, 90	Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m Keeneland, 4/14	JP: Tampa Derby field wasn't that strong, but he is another BC Juv. alumnus who has done well. MW: The addition of blinkers certainly helped, but he is still a decided cut below the best here.
19	Rousing Sermon by Lucky Pulpit	50-1	91	Mr. & Mrs. Larry Williams J. Hollendorfer/M. Smith	Louisiana Derby, 4/1 3rd by 2, 87	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/5	JP: Been too little, too late, in recent races. Seems a pretty decent cut below division's best. MW: Was more competitive last time, but was around late mainly because they walked home.
20	Sabercat by Bluegrass Cat	50-1	85	Winchell Thoroughbreds S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani	Rebel, 3/17 8th by 6 1/4, 81	Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m Oaklawn, 4/14	JP: Didn't do much in Rebel, but it was not imperative. It was a prep, and he's got plenty of cash. MW: Sorry, his Rebel no show did nothing to address concerns about his soft 2-year-old form.